Projecting the Biological Carbon Pump and Climate Feedback in the Rapidly Changing West Antarctic Peninsula: A Hybrid Modeling Study
Start Date:
2024-07-15
End Date:
2027-06-30
Description/Abstract
The West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) is experiencing significant environmental changes, including warming temperatures, reduced sea ice, and glacier retreat. These changes could impact marine ecosystems and biological and chemical processes, particularly the biological pump, which is the process by which carbon is transported from the ocean surface to the deep sea, playing a crucial role in regulating atmospheric carbon dioxide levels. This project aims to understand how climate change affects the biological pump in the WAP region. Using a combination of advanced modeling techniques and data from long-term research programs, the project will investigate the processes governing the biological pump and its climate feedback. The findings will provide insights into the future dynamics of the WAP region and contribute to our understanding of climate change impacts on polar marine ecosystems. This research is important as it will enhance knowledge of how polar regions respond to climate change, which is vital for predicting global climate patterns and informing conservation efforts. Furthermore, the project supports the development of early-career researchers and promotes diversity in science through collaborations with educational programs and outreach to underrepresented communities.
This project focuses on the WAP, a region undergoing rapid environmental changes. The goal is to investigate and quantify the factors controlling the biological pump and its feedback to climate change and variability. A novel hybrid modeling framework will be developed, integrating observational data from the Palmer Long-Term Ecological Research program and the Rothera Oceanographic and Biological Time-Series into a sophisticated one-dimensional mechanistic biogeochemical model. This framework will utilize Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning techniques for data assimilation and parameter optimization. By incorporating complementary datasets and optimizing model parameters, the project aims to reduce uncertainties in modeling biological pump processes. The study will also use climate scenarios from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 to assess the impacts of future climate conditions on the biological pump. Additionally, the project will examine the role of vertical mixing of dissolved organic matter in total export production, providing a comprehensive understanding of the WAP carbon cycle. The outcomes will improve temporal resolution and data assimilation, advancing the mechanistic understanding of the interplay between ocean dynamics and biogeochemical processes in the changing polar environment. The project will also leverage unique datasets and make the model framework and source codes publicly available, facilitating collaboration and benefiting the broader scientific community. Outreach efforts include engaging with educational programs and promoting diversity in Polar Science through collaborations with institutions serving underrepresented groups.
Personnel
Funding
AMD - DIF Record(s)
USAP-2332062_1
Data Management Plan
None in the Database
Product Level:
Not provided
Keywords
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