USAP-DC

Most of the mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet, a major contributor to sea level rise, occurs at its margins, where ice meets the ocean. Glaciers and ice streams flow towards the coast and can go afloat over the water, forming ice shelves. Ice shelves make up almost half of the entire Antarctic coastline, and hold back the flow of inland ice in Antarctica continent; thus they are integral to the overall stability of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Ice shelves lose mass by two main processes: iceberg calving and basal melting. Temporal and spatial fluctuations in both are driven by various processes; a major driver of ice shelf melt is the heat provided by the neighboring Southern Ocean. Ocean heat, in turn, is driven by various aspects of the ice shelf environment. One of the most significant contributors to changes in the ocean’s heat content is the presence of sea ice. This research will focus on the effects of coastal polynyas (areas of open water amidst sea ice), how they modulate the local ocean environment, and how that environment drives ice shelf basal melting. To date, the relationship between polynyas and ice shelf melt has not been characterized on an Antarctic-wide scale. Understanding the feedbacks between polynya size and duration, ocean stratification, and ice shelf melt, and the strength of those feedbacks, will improve the ability to characterize influences on the long-term stability of ice shelves, and in turn, the Antarctic Ice Sheet as a whole. A critical aspect of this study is that it will provide a framework for understanding ice shelf-ocean interaction across a diverse range of geographic settings. This, together with improvements of various models, will help interpret the impacts of future climate change on these systems, as their responses are likely quite variable and, overall, different from the large-scale response of the ice sheet. This project will also provide a broader context to better design future observational studies of specific coastal polynya and ice shelf processes. This study focuses on four main hypotheses: 1) Variations of coastal polynya extent are correlated with those of the ice shelf melt rates, and this correlation varies around Antarctica; 2) Polynya extent modulates a feedback between ice shelf melt and accretion regimes through stratification of local waters; 3) Polynya extent together with seafloor bathymetry regulate the volume of warm offshore waters that reach ice margins; and 4) The strength of the feedback between polynya and glacier ice varies with geographic setting and influences the long-term stability of the glacial system. Observational data, including ice-penetrating radar, radar and laser altimetry, and in situ hydrographic data, and derived data sets from the Southern Ocean State Estimate (SOSE) project and BedMachine Antarctica, will be used in conjunction with ocean (MIT global circulation model, MITgcm) and ice sheet (Ice sheet and Sea-level System Model, ISSM) models to reveal underlying dynamics. The joint analysis of the observational data enables an investigation of polynya, ocean, and ice shelf signals and their interplay over time across a range of settings. The results of this data analysis also provide inputs and validation data for the modeling tasks, which will allow for characterization of the feedbacks in our observations. The coupled modeling will enable us to examine the interaction between polynya circulation and ice shelves in different dynamical regimes and to understand ice and ocean feedback over time. Diagnosing and interpreting the pan-Antarctic spatial variability of the polynya-ice shelf interaction are the main objectives of this research and separates this study from other projects targeted at the interactive processes in specific regions. As such, this research focuses on seven preliminary target sites around the Antarctic coast to establish a framework for interpreting coupled ice shelf-ocean variability across a diverse range of geographic settings. This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

Person	Role
Walker, Catherine	Investigator and contact
Zhang, Weifeng	Co-Investigator
Seroussi, Helene	Co-Investigator

Antarctic Integrated System Science	Award # 2205008
Antarctic Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences	Award # 2205008

USAP-2205008_1

None in the Database