IEDA
Project Information
Collaborative Research: Do Ocean Wave Impacts Pose a Hazard to the Stability of West Antarctic Ice Shelves?
Short Title:
Ocean Gravity Wave Impacts on Antarctic Ice Shelves
Start Date:
2018-06-01
End Date:
2022-05-31
Description/Abstract
Understanding and being able to more reliably forecast ice mass loss from Antarctica is a critical research priority for Antarctic Science. Massive ice shelves buttress marine terminating glaciers, slowing the rate that land ice reaches the sea and, in turn, restraining the rate of sea level rise. To date, most work has focused on the destabilizing impacts of warmer air and water temperatures, resulting in melting that thins and weakens ice shelves. However, recent findings indicate that sea ice does not protect ice shelves from wave impacts as much as previously thought, which has raised the possibility that tsunamis and other ocean waves could affect shelf stability. This project will assess the potential for increased shelf fracturing from the impact of tsunamis and from heightened wave activity due to climate-driven changes in storm patterns and reduced sea-ice extent by developing models to investigate how wave impacts damage ice shelves. The modeling effort will allow for regional comparisons between large and small ice shelves, and provide an evaluation of the impacts of changing climate and storm patterns on ice shelves, ice sheets, glaciers, and, ultimately, sea level rise. This project will train graduate students in mathematical modeling and interdisciplinary approaches to Earth and ocean sciences.

This project takes a four-pronged approach to estimating the impact of vibrations on ice shelves at the grounding zone due to tsunamis, very long period, infragravity, and storm-driven waves. First, the team will use high-resolution tsunami modeling to investigate the response of ice shelves along the West Antarctic coast to waves originating in different regions of the Pacific Ocean. Second, it will compare the response to wave impacts on grounding zones of narrow and wide ice shelves. Third, it will assess the exposure risk due to storm forcing through a reanalysis of weather and wave model data; and, finally, the team will model the propagation of ocean-wave-induced vibrations in the ice from the shelf front to and across the grounding zone. In combination, this project aims to identify locations along the Antarctic coast that are subject to enhanced, bathymetrically-focused, long-period ocean-wave impacts. Linkages between wave impacts and climate arise from potential changes in sea-ice extent in front of shelves, and changes in the magnitude, frequency, and tracks of storms. Understanding the effects of ocean waves and climate on ice-shelf integrity is critical to anticipate their contribution to the amplitude and timing of sea-level rise. Wave-driven reductions in ice-shelf stability may enhance shelf fragmentation and iceberg calving, reducing ice shelf buttressing and eventually accelerating sea-level rise.

This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.
Personnel
Person Role
Dunham, Eric Investigator and contact
Bromirski, Peter Investigator
Wei, Yong Investigator
Funding
Antarctic Glaciology Award # 1744958
Antarctic Integrated System Science Award # 1744958
Antarctic Glaciology Award # 1744856
Antarctic Integrated System Science Award # 1744856
Antarctic Glaciology Award # 1744759
Antarctic Integrated System Science Award # 1744759
Antarctic Glaciology Award # 1246151
Collaborative Research: Dynamic Response of the Ross Ice Shelf to Wave-induced Vibrations

Bromirski/1246151

This award supports a project intended to discover, through field observations and numerical simulations, how ocean wave-induced vibrations on ice shelves in general, and the Ross Ice Shelf (RIS), in particular, can be used (1) to infer spatial and temporal variability of ice shelf mechanical properties, (2) to infer bulk elastic properties from signal propagation characteristics, and (3) to determine whether the RIS response to infragravity (IG) wave forcing observed distant from the front propagates as stress waves from the front or is "locally" generated by IG wave energy penetrating the RIS cavity. The intellectual merit of the work is that ocean gravity waves are dynamic elements of the global ocean environment, affected by ocean warming and changes in ocean and atmospheric circulation patterns. Their evolution may thus drive changes in ice-shelf stability by both mechanical interactions, and potentially increased basal melting, which in turn feed back on sea level rise. Gravity wave-induced signal propagation across ice shelves depends on ice shelf and sub-shelf water cavity geometry (e.g. structure, thickness, crevasse density and orientation), as well as ice shelf physical properties. Emphasis will be placed on observation and modeling of the RIS response to IG wave forcing at periods from 75 to 300 s. Because IG waves are not appreciably damped by sea ice, seasonal monitoring will give insights into the year-round RIS response to this oceanographic forcing. The 3-year project will involve a 24-month period of continuous data collection spanning two annual cycles on the RIS. RIS ice-front array coverage overlaps with a synergistic Ross Sea Mantle Structure (RSMS) study, giving an expanded array beneficial for IG wave localization. The ice-shelf deployment will consist of sixteen stations equipped with broadband seismometers and barometers. Three seismic stations near the RIS front will provide reference response/forcing functions, and measure the variability of the response across the front. A linear seismic array orthogonal to the front will consist of three stations in-line with three RSMS stations. Passive seismic array monitoring will be used to determine the spatial and temporal distribution of ocean wave-induced signal sources along the front of the RIS and estimate ice shelf structure, with the high-density array used to monitor and localize fracture (icequake) activity. The broader impacts include providing baseline measurements to enable detection of ice-shelf changes over coming decades which will help scientists and policy-makers respond to the socio-environmental challenges of climate change and sea-level rise. A postdoctoral scholar in interdisciplinary Earth science will be involved throughout the course of the research. Students at Cuyamaca Community College, San Diego County, will develop and manage a web site for the project to be used as a teaching tool for earth science and oceanography classes, with development of an associated web site on waves for middle school students.

AMD - DIF Record(s)
Data Management Plan
None in the Database
Product Level:
1 (processed data)
Publications
  1. Jenkins, W. F., Gerstoft, P., Bianco, M. J., & Bromirski, P. D. (2021). Unsupervised Deep Clustering of Seismic Data: Monitoring the Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctica. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 126(9). (doi:10.1029/2021jb021716)
  2. Zabotin, N., Godin, O. A., Bromirski, P. D., Jee, G., Lee, W. S., Yun, S., & Zabotina, L. (2023). Low‐Frequency Wave Activity in the Ocean—Ross Ice Shelf—Atmosphere System. Earth and Space Science, 10(6). Portico. (doi:10.1029/2022ea002621)
Platforms and Instruments

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