{"dp_type": "Project", "free_text": "circulation models"}
[{"awards": "1643285 Joughin, Ian; 1643174 Padman, Laurence", "bounds_geometry": "POLYGON((-104 -73,-102.2 -73,-100.4 -73,-98.6 -73,-96.8 -73,-95 -73,-93.2 -73,-91.4 -73,-89.6 -73,-87.8 -73,-86 -73,-86 -73.8,-86 -74.6,-86 -75.4,-86 -76.2,-86 -77,-86 -77.8,-86 -78.6,-86 -79.4,-86 -80.2,-86 -81,-87.8 -81,-89.6 -81,-91.4 -81,-93.2 -81,-95 -81,-96.8 -81,-98.6 -81,-100.4 -81,-102.2 -81,-104 -81,-104 -80.2,-104 -79.4,-104 -78.6,-104 -77.8,-104 -77,-104 -76.2,-104 -75.4,-104 -74.6,-104 -73.8,-104 -73))", "dataset_titles": "Beta Version of Plume Model; Data associated with Ice-Shelf Retreat Drives Recent Pine Island Glacier Speedup and Ocean-Induced Melt Volume Directly Paces Ice Loss from Pine Island Glacier; icepack; Pine Island Basin Scale Model", "datasets": [{"dataset_uid": "200314", "doi": "", "keywords": null, "people": null, "repository": "GitHub", "science_program": null, "title": "icepack", "url": "https://github.com/icepack/icepack"}, {"dataset_uid": "200313", "doi": "", "keywords": null, "people": null, "repository": "GitHub", "science_program": null, "title": "Beta Version of Plume Model", "url": "https://github.com/icepack/plumes"}, {"dataset_uid": "200290", "doi": "http://hdl.handle.net/1773/46687", "keywords": null, "people": null, "repository": "Uni. Washington ResearchWorks Archive", "science_program": null, "title": "Data associated with Ice-Shelf Retreat Drives Recent Pine Island Glacier Speedup and Ocean-Induced Melt Volume Directly Paces Ice Loss from Pine Island Glacier", "url": "https://doi.org/10.6069/2MZZ-6B61"}, {"dataset_uid": "200315", "doi": "", "keywords": null, "people": null, "repository": "GitHub", "science_program": null, "title": "Pine Island Basin Scale Model", "url": "https://github.com/fastice/icesheetModels"}], "date_created": "Fri, 13 May 2022 00:00:00 GMT", "description": "Overview: Several recent studies indicate continuing and increasing ice loss from the Amundsen Sea region of West Antarctica (chiefly Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers). This loss is initiated by thinning of the floating ice shelves by basal melting driven by circulation of relatively warm ocean water under the ice shelves. This thinning triggers ice-dynamics related feedbacks, which leads to loss of ice from the grounded ice sheet. Models suggest that, even though long-term committed ice loss might be governed by ice dynamics, the magnitude of ocean-driven melting at the base of the ice shelves plays a critical role in controlling the rate of ice loss. These conclusions, however, are based on simple parameterized models for melt rate that do not take into account how ocean circulation will change in future as large-scale climate forcing changes, and as the ice shelves thin and retreat through both excess melting and accelerated ice flow. Given that present global climate models struggle to resolve the modern ocean state close to the ice shelves around Antarctica, their projections of future impacts on basal melting and time scale of ice loss have large uncertainties.\r\nThis project is aimed at reducing these uncertainties though two approaches: (i) assessing, for a given ocean state, how the melt rates will change as ice-shelf cavities evolve through melting and grounding-line retreat, and (ii) improving understanding of the sensitivity of melt rates beneath the Pine Island and Thwaites ice shelves to changes in ocean state on the Amundsen Sea continental shelf. These studies will provide more realistic bounds on ice loss and sea level rise, and lay the groundwork for development of future fully-coupled ice sheet-ocean simulations.\r\nIntellectual Merit: Rather than pursue a strategy of using fully coupled models, this project adopts a simpler semi-coupled approach to understand the sensitivity of ice-shelf melting to future forcing. Specifically, the project focuses on using regional ocean circulation models to understand current and future patterns of melting in ice-shelf cavities. The project\u2019s preliminary stage will focus on developing high-resolution ice-shelf cavity-circulation models driven by modern observed regional ocean state and validated with current patterns of melt inferred from satellite observations. Next, an ice-flow model will be used to estimate the future grounding line at various stages of retreat. Using these results, an iterative process with the ocean-circulation and ice-flow models will be applied to determine melt rates at each stage of grounding line retreat. These results will help assess whether more physically constrained melt-rate estimates substantially alter the hypothesis that unstable collapse of the Amundsen Sea sector of West Antarctica is underway. Further, by multiple simulations with modified open-ocean boundary conditions, this study will provide a better understanding of the sensitivity of melt to future changes in regional forcing. For example, what is the sensitivity of melt to changes in Circumpolar Deep Water temperature and to changes in the thermocline height driven be changes in wind forcing? Finally, several semi-coupled ice-ocean simulations will be used to investigate the influence of the ocean-circulation driven distribution of melt over the next several decades. These simulations will provide a much-improved understanding of the linkages between far-field ocean forcing, cavity circulation and melting, and ice-sheet response.\r\nBroader Impacts: Planning within the current large range of uncertainty in future sea level change leads to high social and economic costs for governments and businesses worldwide. Thus, our project to reduce sea-level rise uncertainty has strong societal as well as scientific interest. The findings and methods will be applicable to ice shelf cavities in other parts of Antarctica and northern Greenland, and will set the stage for future studies with fully coupled models as computational resources improve. This interdisciplinary work combines expertise of glaciologists and oceanographers, and will contribute to the education of new researchers in this field, with participation of graduate students and postdocs. Through several outreach activities, team members will help make the public aware of the dramatic changes occurring in Antarctica along with the likely consequences.\r\n\r\nThis proposal does not require fieldwork in the Antarctic.\r\n", "east": -86.0, "geometry": "POINT(-95 -77)", "instruments": null, "is_usap_dc": true, "keywords": "GLACIER MOTION/ICE SHEET MOTION; USA/NSF; ICE SHEETS; AMD; USAP-DC; MODELS; AMD/US; Pine Island Glacier", "locations": "Pine Island Glacier", "north": -73.0, "nsf_funding_programs": "Antarctic Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences; Antarctic Integrated System Science; Antarctic Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences; Antarctic Glaciology; Antarctic Glaciology; Antarctic Integrated System Science", "paleo_time": null, "persons": "Joughin, Ian; Dutrieux, Pierre; Padman, Laurence; Springer, Scott", "platforms": "OTHER \u003e MODELS \u003e MODELS", "repo": "GitHub", "repositories": "GitHub; Uni. Washington ResearchWorks Archive", "science_programs": null, "south": -81.0, "title": "Collaborative Research: Modeling ice-ocean interaction for the rapidly evolving ice shelf cavities of Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, Antarctica ", "uid": "p0010318", "west": -104.0}, {"awards": "2148517 Hancock, Cathrine", "bounds_geometry": "POLYGON((-60 -55,-51 -55,-42 -55,-33 -55,-24 -55,-15 -55,-6 -55,3 -55,12 -55,21 -55,30 -55,30 -57,30 -59,30 -61,30 -63,30 -65,30 -67,30 -69,30 -71,30 -73,30 -75,21 -75,12 -75,3 -75,-6 -75,-15 -75,-24 -75,-33 -75,-42 -75,-51 -75,-60 -75,-60 -73,-60 -71,-60 -69,-60 -67,-60 -65,-60 -63,-60 -61,-60 -59,-60 -57,-60 -55))", "dataset_titles": "Under ice trajectories for RAFOS enabled profiling floats in the Weddell Gyre", "datasets": [{"dataset_uid": "601652", "doi": "10.15784/601652", "keywords": "Antarctica; ANTXXIV/3; Argo Float; Artoa4Argo; GPS Data; RAFOS; US Argo Program; Weddell Sea", "people": "Hancock, Cathrine", "repository": "USAP-DC", "science_program": null, "title": "Under ice trajectories for RAFOS enabled profiling floats in the Weddell Gyre", "url": "https://www.usap-dc.org/view/dataset/601652"}], "date_created": "Fri, 25 Mar 2022 00:00:00 GMT", "description": "The Weddell Gyre is one of the major components of the Southern Ocean circulation system, linking heat and carbon fluxes in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current to the continental margins. Water masses entering the Weddell Gyre are modified as they move in a great circular route around the gyre margin and change through processes involving air-sea-cryosphere interactions as well as through ocean eddies that mix properties across the gyre boundaries. Some of the denser water masses exit the gyre through pathways along the northern boundary, and ultimately ventilate the global deep ocean as Antarctic Bottom Water. While in-situ and satellite observations, as well as computer modeling efforts, provide estimates of the large-scale average flow within the gyre, details of the smaller-scale, or \"mesoscale\" eddy flow remain elusive. The proposed research will quantify mixing due to mesoscale eddies within the Weddell Gyre, as well as the transport of incoming deep water from the northeast, thought to be a result of transient eddies. Since the Weddell Gyre produces source water for about 40% of Antarctic Bottom Water formation, understanding the dynamics in this region helps to identify causes of documented changes in global bottom waters. This in turn, will give insight into how climate change is affecting global oceans, through modification of dense polar waters and Antarctic Bottom Water characteristics.\r\n\r\nThis project aims to track 153 RAFOS-enabled Argo floats in the ice-covered regions of the Weddell Gyre. The resultant tracks along with all available Argo and earlier float data will be used to calculate Eulerian and Lagrangian means and eddy statistics for the Weddell Gyre. The study will link RAFOS tracks with Argo profiles under ice, allowing one to characterize the importance of eddies in water column modification at critical ice-edge boundaries and leads. With RAFOS tracks near the northeastern limit of the gyre, the project will investigate the eddy-driven processes of incoming Circumpolar Deep Water, to understand better the mechanisms and volume fluxes involved. Previous work shows that a large fraction of the mean circulation in the southern and western limits of the gyre, where it contacts the Antarctic continent, occurs in a narrow boundary layer above the slope. The research here will integrate this flow structure into a complete interior and boundary layer mean circulation synthesis. The findings and products from the proposed work will improve the positioning of Argo profiles in the polar regions, which would allow for more accurate climatological maps and derived quantities. Estimates of meso-scale mixing may serve as a foundation for the development of new parameterization schemes employed in climate models, as well as local and global ocean circulation models in polar regions.", "east": 30.0, "geometry": "POINT(-15 -65)", "instruments": null, "is_usap_dc": true, "keywords": "AMD/US; OCEAN CURRENTS; WATER MASSES; BUOYS; USA/NSF; Weddell Sea; AMD; USAP-DC", "locations": "Weddell Sea", "north": -55.0, "nsf_funding_programs": "Antarctic Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences", "paleo_time": null, "persons": "Hancock, Cathrine; Speer, Kevin", "platforms": "WATER-BASED PLATFORMS \u003e BUOYS \u003e MOORED \u003e BUOYS", "repo": "USAP-DC", "repositories": "USAP-DC", "science_programs": null, "south": -75.0, "title": "Weddell Gyre Mean Circulation and Eddy Statistics from Floats", "uid": "p0010310", "west": -60.0}, {"awards": "1951500 Jenouvrier, Stephanie", "bounds_geometry": "POLYGON((-180 -60,-144 -60,-108 -60,-72 -60,-36 -60,0 -60,36 -60,72 -60,108 -60,144 -60,180 -60,180 -63,180 -66,180 -69,180 -72,180 -75,180 -78,180 -81,180 -84,180 -87,180 -90,144 -90,108 -90,72 -90,36 -90,0 -90,-36 -90,-72 -90,-108 -90,-144 -90,-180 -90,-180 -87,-180 -84,-180 -81,-180 -78,-180 -75,-180 -72,-180 -69,-180 -66,-180 -63,-180 -60))", "dataset_titles": "The impact of boldness on demographic rates and lifehistory outcomes in the wandering albatross", "datasets": [{"dataset_uid": "601770", "doi": "10.15784/601770", "keywords": "Antarctica; Cryosphere; Demography; Sub-Antarctic", "people": "Jenouvrier, Stephanie; Joanie, Van de Walle", "repository": "USAP-DC", "science_program": null, "title": "The impact of boldness on demographic rates and lifehistory outcomes in the wandering albatross", "url": "https://www.usap-dc.org/view/dataset/601770"}], "date_created": "Wed, 08 Dec 2021 00:00:00 GMT", "description": "Overview: To date, studies that have addressed the impacts of global changes have mainly focused on linking climate variability and/or human disturbances to individual life history traits, population dynamics or distribution. However, individual behavior and plasticity mediate these responses. The goal of this project is to understand mechanisms linking environmental changes (climate \u0026 fisheries)- behavioral personality type \u2013 plasticity in foraging behaviors- life history traits \u2013 population dynamics for a seabird breeding in the southern ocean: the wandering albatross. This project will also forecast the population structure and growth rate using the most detailed mechanistic model to date for any wild species incorporating behaviors in an eco-evolutionary context. Specifically, the investigators will (1) characterize the life history strategies along the shy-bold continuum of personalities and across environmental conditions; (2) understand the link between phenotypic plasticity in foraging effort and personality; (3) characterize the heritability of personality and foraging behaviors; (4) develop a stochastic eco-evolutionary model to understand and forecast the distribution of bold and shy individuals within the population and the resulting effect on population growth rate in a changing environment by integrating processes from goals 1, 2 and 3. To date, this has been hampered by the lack of long-term data on personality and life histories in any long-lived species in the wild. For the first time ever, we have tested in a controlled environment the response to a novel situation for ~1800 individuals for more than a decade to define individual personality variation along the shy-bold continuum that we can relate to the life history traits over the entire species life cycle using unique long-term individual mark-recapture data sets for this iconic polar species. The novelty of this project thus lies in the combination of personality, foraging and demographic data to understand and forecast population responses to global change using state-of-the-art statistical analysis and eco-evolutionary modeling approaches. \r\nIntellectual Merit: While there is ubiquitous evidence of personality differences across taxa, the implications for life-history are less clear, and the consequences for population dynamics virtually unexplored empirically. How the phenotypic distributions of personality and foraging behaviors types within a population is created and maintained by ecological (demographic and phenotypic plasticity) and evolutionary (heritability) processes remain an open question. Personality traits are a crucial link between how individuals acquire resources, and how they allocate these to reproduction and survival, and this trade-off drives population dynamics. However, although some studies have found different foraging behaviors or breeding performances between personality types, none have established the link between personality- foraging behaviors \u2013 life histories (both reproduction and survival, and their covariations) in the context of climate change. Furthermore plasticity in foraging behaviors is not considered in the pace-of-life syndrome, which has potentially hampered our ability to find covariation between personality and life history trade-off. Research into the heritability of personality traits has revealed a strong heritable component, but studies looking at the heritability of foraging behaviors are lacking. For the first time ever, this project will fill these knowledge gaps and integrate in an eco-evolutionary model the complex interaction among individual personality and foraging plasticity, heritability of personality and foraging behaviors, life history strategies, population dynamics in a changing environment (fisheries and climate). Furthermore, this project will provide for the first time projections of population size and structure under future global change using state-of-the-art climate projections from IPCC-class atmospheric-oceanic global circulation models.", "east": 180.0, "geometry": "POINT(0 -89.999)", "instruments": null, "is_usap_dc": true, "keywords": "USAP-DC; NOT APPLICABLE; AMD; ECOLOGICAL DYNAMICS; OCEAN TEMPERATURE; USA/NSF; Antarctica; SPECIES/POPULATION INTERACTIONS; AMD/US; PENGUINS", "locations": "Antarctica", "north": -60.0, "nsf_funding_programs": "Antarctic Integrated System Science; Antarctic Organisms and Ecosystems", "paleo_time": null, "persons": "Jenouvrier, Stephanie; Patrick, Samantha", "platforms": "OTHER \u003e NOT APPLICABLE \u003e NOT APPLICABLE", "repo": "USAP-DC", "repositories": "USAP-DC", "science_programs": null, "south": -90.0, "title": "NSFGEO-NERC: Integrating Individual Personality Differences in the Evolutionary Ecology of a Seabird in the Rapidly Changing Polar Environment", "uid": "p0010283", "west": -180.0}, {"awards": "2037561 Jenouvrier, Stephanie", "bounds_geometry": "POLYGON((-180 -60,-144 -60,-108 -60,-72 -60,-36 -60,0 -60,36 -60,72 -60,108 -60,144 -60,180 -60,180 -63,180 -66,180 -69,180 -72,180 -75,180 -78,180 -81,180 -84,180 -87,180 -90,144 -90,108 -90,72 -90,36 -90,0 -90,-36 -90,-72 -90,-108 -90,-144 -90,-180 -90,-180 -87,-180 -84,-180 -81,-180 -78,-180 -75,-180 -72,-180 -69,-180 -66,-180 -63,-180 -60))", "dataset_titles": "Code for \u015een et al. 2023; Detecting climate signals in populations: case of emperor penguin", "datasets": [{"dataset_uid": "601491", "doi": "10.15784/601491", "keywords": "Antarctica", "people": "Jenouvrier, Stephanie", "repository": "USAP-DC", "science_program": null, "title": "Detecting climate signals in populations: case of emperor penguin", "url": "https://www.usap-dc.org/view/dataset/601491"}, {"dataset_uid": "200373", "doi": "https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7803266", "keywords": null, "people": null, "repository": "Zenodo", "science_program": null, "title": "Code for \u015een et al. 2023", "url": "https://zenodo.org/record/7803266"}], "date_created": "Wed, 08 Dec 2021 00:00:00 GMT", "description": "Overview: We aim to provide the most detailed investigation to date of the factors that influence predictability of Antarctic climate, the coupling of climate to penguins populations, and the integration of the two to optimize ecological forecasts. This integrated understanding is critical for guiding future ecological and climate research, prioritizing bio-physical monitoring efforts, and informing conservation decision-making. Our study will reveal the influence of climate system dynamics on ecological predictability across a range of scales and will examine how this role differs among ecological processes, species and regions of Antarctica. \r\n\r\nIntellectual Merit: Many biophysical processes will change in the coming century. Yet, the mechanisms controlling the predictability of many climate processes are still poorly understood, limiting progress in climate forecasting. In parallel, ecological forecasting remains a nascent discipline. In particular, comparative assessments of predictability, both within and among species, are critically needed to understand the factors that allow (or prevent) useful ecological forecasts. While important for ecological science generally, this need is particularly pressing in Antarctica where the environment is highly dynamic, strongly coupled to biological processes, and likely to change in the future. Improved ecological forecasting therefore requires interdisciplinary efforts to understand the causes of predictability in climate, and in tandem, how climate influences the predictability of natural populations.\r\nThis proposed research will examine the predictability of Antarctic climate and its influence on penguin demographic response predictability at various temporal and spatial scales using the longest datasets available for two penguin species. Specifically, the PI will 1) identify the physical mechanisms giving rise to climate predictability in Antarctica, 2) identify the relationships between climate and ecological processes at a range of scales, and 3) reveal the factors controlling ecological predictability across a range of scales (e.g., those relevant for short-term adaptive management versus those relevant at end-of-century timescales). These objectives will be achieved using the analysis of existing climate data and Atmosphere-Ocean Global Circulation Models (AGOCMs), with coupled analysis of existing long-term demographic data for multiple seabird species that span a range of ecological niches, life histories, and study sites across the continent.\r\n", "east": 180.0, "geometry": "POINT(0 -89.999)", "instruments": null, "is_usap_dc": true, "keywords": "ECOLOGICAL DYNAMICS; PENGUINS; Antarctica; USA/NSF; SEA ICE; NOT APPLICABLE; USAP-DC; AMD; AMD/US", "locations": "Antarctica", "north": -60.0, "nsf_funding_programs": "Antarctic Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences", "paleo_time": null, "persons": "Jenouvrier, Stephanie; Holland, Marika", "platforms": "OTHER \u003e NOT APPLICABLE \u003e NOT APPLICABLE", "repo": "USAP-DC", "repositories": "USAP-DC; Zenodo", "science_programs": null, "south": -90.0, "title": "Integrating Antarctic Environmental and Biological Predictability to Obtain Optimal Forecasts", "uid": "p0010282", "west": -180.0}, {"awards": "1043092 Steig, Eric; 1043167 White, James", "bounds_geometry": "POINT(-112.08 -79.47)", "dataset_titles": "Resampling of Deep Polar Ice Cores using Information Theory; Seasonal temperatures in West Antarctica during the Holocene ; Stable Isotopes of Ice in the Transition and Glacial Sections of the WAIS Divide Deep Ice Core; WAIS Divide Ice Core Discrete CH4 (80-3403m)", "datasets": [{"dataset_uid": "600169", "doi": "10.15784/600169", "keywords": "Antarctica; Geochemistry; Glaciers/Ice Sheet; Glaciology; Ice Core Records; Isotope; Paleoclimate; Snow Accumulation; WAIS divide; WAIS Divide Ice Core", "people": "Jones, Tyler R.; Vaughn, Bruce; White, James; Morris, Valerie", "repository": "USAP-DC", "science_program": "WAIS Divide Ice Core", "title": "Stable Isotopes of Ice in the Transition and Glacial Sections of the WAIS Divide Deep Ice Core", "url": "https://www.usap-dc.org/view/dataset/600169"}, {"dataset_uid": "601741", "doi": "10.15784/601741", "keywords": "Antarctica; CH4; Glaciers/Ice Sheet; Glaciology; Ice Core; Ice Core Records; Methane; WAIS", "people": "Brook, Edward; Sowers, Todd A.", "repository": "USAP-DC", "science_program": "WAIS Divide Ice Core", "title": "WAIS Divide Ice Core Discrete CH4 (80-3403m)", "url": "https://www.usap-dc.org/view/dataset/601741"}, {"dataset_uid": "601365", "doi": "10.15784/601365", "keywords": "Antarctica; Delta 18O; Isotope; WAIS divide; WAIS Divide Ice Core; West Antarctic Ice Sheet", "people": "White, James; Garland, Joshua; Vaughn, Bruce; Jones, Tyler R.; Morris, Valerie", "repository": "USAP-DC", "science_program": "WAIS Divide Ice Core", "title": "Resampling of Deep Polar Ice Cores using Information Theory", "url": "https://www.usap-dc.org/view/dataset/601365"}, {"dataset_uid": "601603", "doi": "10.15784/601603", "keywords": "Antarctica; Glaciers/Ice Sheet; Glaciology; Ice Core; Ice Core Records; Seasonality; Seasonal Temperatures; Temperature; Water Isotopes; West Antarctic Ice Sheet", "people": "Jones, Tyler R.", "repository": "USAP-DC", "science_program": "WAIS Divide Ice Core", "title": "Seasonal temperatures in West Antarctica during the Holocene ", "url": "https://www.usap-dc.org/view/dataset/601603"}, {"dataset_uid": "601274", "doi": "10.15784/601274", "keywords": "Antarctica; Delta 18O; Glaciers/Ice Sheet; Glaciology; Ice Core Records; Isotope; Snow/Ice; WAIS divide; WAIS Divide Ice Core; West Antarctic Ice Sheet", "people": "Garland, Joshua; White, James; Vaughn, Bruce; Jones, Tyler R.; Price, Michael; Morris, Valerie; Bradley, Elizabeth", "repository": "USAP-DC", "science_program": "WAIS Divide Ice Core", "title": "Stable Isotopes of Ice in the Transition and Glacial Sections of the WAIS Divide Deep Ice Core", "url": "https://www.usap-dc.org/view/dataset/601274"}], "date_created": "Thu, 15 Sep 2016 00:00:00 GMT", "description": "Steig/1043092\u003cbr/\u003e\u003cbr/\u003eThis award supports a project to contribute one of the cornerstone analyses, stable isotopes of ice (Delta-D, Delta-O18) to the ongoing West Antarctic Ice Sheet Divide (WAIS) deep ice core. The WAIS Divide drilling project, a multi-institution project to obtain a continuous high resolution ice core record from central West Antarctica, reached a depth of 2560 m in early 2010; it is expected to take one or two more field seasons to reach the ice sheet bed (~3300 m), plus an additional four seasons for borehole logging and other activities including proposed replicate coring. The current proposal requests support to complete analyses on the WAIS Divide core to the base, where the age will be ~100,000 years or more. These analyses will form the basis for the investigation of a number of outstanding questions in climate and glaciology during the last glacial period, focused on the dynamics of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and the relationship of West Antarctic climate to that of the Northern polar regions, the tropical Pacific, and the rest of the globe, on time scales ranging from years to tens of thousands of years. One new aspect of this work is the growing expertise at the University of Washington in climate modeling with isotope-tracer-enabled general circulation models, which will aid in the interpretation of the data. Another major new aspect is the completion and use of a high-resolution, semi-automated sampling system at the University of Colorado, which will permit the continuous analysis of isotope ratios via laser spectroscopy, at an effective resolution of ~2 cm or less, providing inter-annual time resolution for most of the core. Because continuous flow analyses of stable ice isotopes is a relatively new measurement, we will complement them with parallel measurements, every ~10-20 m, using traditional discrete sampling and analysis by mass spectrometry at the University of Washington. The intellectual merit and the overarching goal of the work are to see Inland WAIS become the reference ice isotope record for West Antarctica. The broader impacts of the work are that the data generated in this project pertain directly to policy-relevant and immediate questions of the stability of the West Antarctic ice sheet, and thus past and future changes in sea level, as well as the nature of climate change in the high southern latitudes. The project will also contribute to the development of modern isotope analysis techniques using laser spectroscopy, with applications well beyond ice cores. The project will involve a graduate student and postdoc who will work with both P.I.s, and spend time at both institutions. Data will be made available rapidly through the Antarctic Glaciological Data Center, for use by other researchers and the public.", "east": -112.08, "geometry": "POINT(-112.08 -79.47)", "instruments": null, "is_usap_dc": true, "keywords": "LABORATORY", "locations": null, "north": -79.47, "nsf_funding_programs": "Antarctic Earth Sciences; Antarctic Earth Sciences; Antarctic Glaciology; Antarctic Glaciology", "paleo_time": null, "persons": "White, James; Vaughn, Bruce; Jones, Tyler R.", "platforms": "OTHER \u003e PHYSICAL MODELS \u003e LABORATORY", "repo": "USAP-DC", "repositories": "USAP-DC", "science_programs": "WAIS Divide Ice Core", "south": -79.47, "title": "Collaborative Research: Stable Isotopes of Ice in the Transition and Glacial Sections of the WAIS Divide Deep Ice Core", "uid": "p0000078", "west": -112.08}, {"awards": "1043092 Steig, Eric; 1043167 White, James", "bounds_geometry": null, "dataset_titles": "17O excess from WAIS Divide, 0 to 25 ka BP; WAIS Divide Ice Core Discrete CH4 (80-3403m); WAIS Divide WDC06A Oxygen Isotope Record", "datasets": [{"dataset_uid": "609629", "doi": "10.7265/N5GT5K41", "keywords": "Antarctica; Chemistry:Fluid; Geochemistry; Glaciers/Ice Sheet; Glaciology; Ice Core Records; Isotope; Paleoclimate; WAIS divide; WAIS Divide Ice Core", "people": "Steig, Eric J.", "repository": "USAP-DC", "science_program": "WAIS Divide Ice Core", "title": "WAIS Divide WDC06A Oxygen Isotope Record", "url": "https://www.usap-dc.org/view/dataset/609629"}, {"dataset_uid": "601413", "doi": "10.15784/601413", "keywords": "Antarctica; Ice Core; Oxygen Isotope; WAIS divide", "people": "Steig, Eric J.; Schoenemann, Spruce", "repository": "USAP-DC", "science_program": "WAIS Divide Ice Core", "title": "17O excess from WAIS Divide, 0 to 25 ka BP", "url": "https://www.usap-dc.org/view/dataset/601413"}, {"dataset_uid": "601741", "doi": "10.15784/601741", "keywords": "Antarctica; CH4; Glaciers/Ice Sheet; Glaciology; Ice Core; Ice Core Records; Methane; WAIS", "people": "Brook, Edward; Sowers, Todd A.", "repository": "USAP-DC", "science_program": "WAIS Divide Ice Core", "title": "WAIS Divide Ice Core Discrete CH4 (80-3403m)", "url": "https://www.usap-dc.org/view/dataset/601741"}], "date_created": "Sat, 06 Dec 2014 00:00:00 GMT", "description": "This award supports a project to contribute one of the cornerstone analyses, stable isotopes of ice (Delta-D, Delta-O18) to the ongoing West Antarctic Ice Sheet Divide (WAIS) deep ice core. The WAIS Divide drilling project, a multi-institution project to obtain a continuous high resolution ice core record from central West Antarctica, reached a depth of 2560 m in early 2010; it is expected to take one or two more field seasons to reach the ice sheet bed (~3300 m), plus an additional four seasons for borehole logging and other activities including proposed replicate coring. The current proposal requests support to complete analyses on the WAIS Divide core to the base, where the age will be ~100,000 years or more. These analyses will form the basis for the investigation of a number of outstanding questions in climate and glaciology during the last glacial period, focused on the dynamics of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and the relationship of West Antarctic climate to that of the Northern polar regions, the tropical Pacific, and the rest of the globe, on time scales ranging from years to tens of thousands of years. One new aspect of this work is the growing expertise at the University of Washington in climate modeling with isotope-tracer-enabled general circulation models, which will aid in the interpretation of the data. Another major new aspect is the completion and use of a high-resolution, semi-automated sampling system at the University of Colorado, which will permit the continuous analysis of isotope ratios via laser spectroscopy, at an effective resolution of ~2 cm or less, providing inter-annual time resolution for most of the core. Because continuous flow analyses of stable ice isotopes is a relatively new measurement, we will complement them with parallel measurements, every ~10-20 m, using traditional discrete sampling and analysis by mass spectrometry at the University of Washington. The intellectual merit and the overarching goal of the work are to see Inland WAIS become the reference ice isotope record for West Antarctica. The broader impacts of the work are that the data generated in this project pertain directly to policy-relevant and immediate questions of the stability of the West Antarctic ice sheet, and thus past and future changes in sea level, as well as the nature of climate change in the high southern latitudes. The project will also contribute to the development of modern isotope analysis techniques using laser spectroscopy, with applications well beyond ice cores. The project will involve a graduate student and postdoc who will work with both P.I.s, and spend time at both institutions. Data will be made available rapidly through the Antarctic Glaciological Data Center, for use by other researchers and the public.", "east": null, "geometry": null, "instruments": "IN SITU/LABORATORY INSTRUMENTS \u003e PHOTON/OPTICAL DETECTORS \u003e INFRARED LASER SPECTROSCOPY; IN SITU/LABORATORY INSTRUMENTS \u003e CORERS \u003e CORING DEVICES; IN SITU/LABORATORY INSTRUMENTS \u003e PHOTON/OPTICAL DETECTORS \u003e INFRARED LASER SPECTROSCOPY", "is_usap_dc": true, "keywords": "AMD; ANALYTICAL LAB; USAP-DC; LABORATORY; ICE CORE RECORDS; AMD/US; Antarctica; FIELD SURVEYS; WAIS Divide-project; USA/NSF", "locations": "Antarctica", "north": null, "nsf_funding_programs": "Antarctic Glaciology; Antarctic Earth Sciences; Antarctic Glaciology; Antarctic Earth Sciences", "paleo_time": "PHANEROZOIC \u003e CENOZOIC \u003e QUATERNARY; PHANEROZOIC \u003e CENOZOIC \u003e QUATERNARY \u003e PLEISTOCENE", "persons": "Steig, Eric J.", "platforms": "LAND-BASED PLATFORMS \u003e FIELD SITES \u003e FIELD SURVEYS; OTHER \u003e PHYSICAL MODELS \u003e ANALYTICAL LAB; OTHER \u003e PHYSICAL MODELS \u003e LABORATORY", "repo": "USAP-DC", "repositories": "USAP-DC", "science_programs": "WAIS Divide Ice Core", "south": null, "title": "Collaborative Research: Stable Isotopes of Ice in the Transition and Glacial Sections of the WAIS Divide Deep Ice Core", "uid": "p0000010", "west": null}, {"awards": "0839084 Ortland, David", "bounds_geometry": "POLYGON((-63 -59,-62 -59,-61 -59,-60 -59,-59 -59,-58 -59,-57 -59,-56 -59,-55 -59,-54 -59,-53 -59,-53 -59.6,-53 -60.2,-53 -60.8,-53 -61.4,-53 -62,-53 -62.6,-53 -63.2,-53 -63.8,-53 -64.4,-53 -65,-54 -65,-55 -65,-56 -65,-57 -65,-58 -65,-59 -65,-60 -65,-61 -65,-62 -65,-63 -65,-63 -64.4,-63 -63.8,-63 -63.2,-63 -62.6,-63 -62,-63 -61.4,-63 -60.8,-63 -60.2,-63 -59.6,-63 -59))", "dataset_titles": "Large- and Small-scale Dynamics and Meteor Studies in the MLT with a New-generation Meteor Radar on King George Island", "datasets": [{"dataset_uid": "600107", "doi": "10.15784/600107", "keywords": "Antarctica; Atmosphere; Meteorology; Meteor Radar", "people": "Janches, Diego; Fritts, David", "repository": "USAP-DC", "science_program": null, "title": "Large- and Small-scale Dynamics and Meteor Studies in the MLT with a New-generation Meteor Radar on King George Island", "url": "https://www.usap-dc.org/view/dataset/600107"}], "date_created": "Mon, 15 Aug 2011 00:00:00 GMT", "description": "This award is funded under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (Public Law 111-5). The project will employ a sophisticated meteor radar at the Brazilian Antarctic station Comandante Ferraz on King George Island for a number of synergetic research efforts of high interest to the international aeronomical community. The location of the radar will be at the tip of the Antarctic Peninsula - at a critical southern latitude of 62 degrees - to fill a current measurement gap from 54 to 68 degrees south. The radar will play a key role in Antarctic and inter-hemispheric studies of neutral atmosphere dynamics, defining global mesosphere and lower thermosphere structure and variability (from 80 to 105 km) and guiding advances of models accounting for the dynamics of this high-altitude region, including general circulation models, and climate and numerical weather prediction models. The unique radar measurement sensitivity will enable studies of: (1) the large-scale circulation and planetary waves, (2) the tidal structure and variability, (3) the momentum transport by small-scale gravity waves, (4) important, but unquantified, gravity wave - tidal interactions, (5) polar mesosphere summer echoes, and (6) meteor fluxes, head echoes, and non-specular trails, a number of which exhibit high latitudinal gradients at these latitudes. This radar will support extensive collaborations with U.S. and other scientists making measurements at other Antarctic and Arctic conjugate sites, including Brazilian scientists at C. Ferraz and U.S. and international colleagues having other instrumentation in the Antarctic, Arctic, and within South America. Links to the University of Colorado in the U.S., Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE) in Brazil and Universidad Nacional de La Plata in Argentina will provide unique research opportunities for graduate and undergraduate students in the U.S. and South America.", "east": -53.0, "geometry": "POINT(-58 -62)", "instruments": null, "is_usap_dc": true, "keywords": "Not provided", "locations": null, "north": -59.0, "nsf_funding_programs": "Antarctic Astrophysics and Geospace Sciences", "paleo_time": null, "persons": "Fritts, David; Janches, Diego", "platforms": "Not provided", "repo": "USAP-DC", "repositories": "USAP-DC", "science_programs": null, "south": -65.0, "title": "Large- and Small-scale Dynamics and Meteor Studies in the MLT with a New-generation Meteor Radar on King George Island", "uid": "p0000670", "west": -63.0}, {"awards": "0440775 Jacobs, Stanley", "bounds_geometry": null, "dataset_titles": "Expedition data of NBP0702; NBP0702 surface sediment sample information and images", "datasets": [{"dataset_uid": "002645", "doi": null, "keywords": null, "people": null, "repository": "R2R", "science_program": null, "title": "Expedition data of NBP0702", "url": "https://www.rvdata.us/search/cruise/NBP0702"}, {"dataset_uid": "601473", "doi": "10.15784/601473", "keywords": "Amundsen Sea; Antarctica; Marine Geoscience; Marine Sediments; NBP0702; Photo; R/V Nathaniel B. Palmer; Seafloor Sampling; Sediment Description; Smith-McIntyre Grab", "people": "Jacobs, Stanley; Leventer, Amy", "repository": "USAP-DC", "science_program": null, "title": "NBP0702 surface sediment sample information and images", "url": "https://www.usap-dc.org/view/dataset/601473"}], "date_created": "Tue, 04 May 2010 00:00:00 GMT", "description": "This collaborative study between Columbia University and the Southampton Oceanography Centre will investigate the dynamics of warm water intrusions under antarctic floating ice shelves. The study will focus on the Amundsen Sea and Pine Island Glacier, and will document how this water gains access to the continental shelf, transports heat into the ice shelf cavities via deep, glacially-scoured troughs, and rises beneath the ice to drive basal melting. The resulting seawater-meltwater mixtures upwell near the ice fronts, contributing to the formation of atypical coastal polynyas with strong geochemical signatures. Multidecadal freshening downstream is consistent with thinning ice shelves, which may be triggering changes inland, increasing the flow of grounded ice into the sea. This work will be carried out in combination with parallel modeling, remote sensing and data based projects, in an effort to narrow uncertainties about the response of West Antarctic Ice Sheet to climate change. Using state-of-the-art facilities and instruments, this work will enhance knowledge of water mass production and modification, and the understanding of interactions between the ocean circulation, sea floor and ice shelves. The data and findings will be reported to publicly accessible archives and submitted for publication in the scientific literature. The information obtained should prove invaluable for the development and validation of general circulation models, needed to predict the future role of the Antarctic Ice Sheet in sea level change.", "east": null, "geometry": null, "instruments": "IN SITU/LABORATORY INSTRUMENTS \u003e PROFILERS/SOUNDERS \u003e CTD; IN SITU/LABORATORY INSTRUMENTS \u003e MAGNETIC/MOTION SENSORS \u003e GRAVIMETERS \u003e GRAVIMETERS; IN SITU/LABORATORY INSTRUMENTS \u003e PRESSURE/HEIGHT METERS \u003e PRESSURE SENSORS; IN SITU/LABORATORY INSTRUMENTS \u003e PHOTON/OPTICAL DETECTORS \u003e TURBIDITY METERS; EARTH REMOTE SENSING INSTRUMENTS \u003e PASSIVE REMOTE SENSING \u003e POSITIONING/NAVIGATION \u003e GPS \u003e GPS; IN SITU/LABORATORY INSTRUMENTS \u003e PROFILERS/SOUNDERS \u003e ACOUSTIC SOUNDERS \u003e ADCP; IN SITU/LABORATORY INSTRUMENTS \u003e PROFILERS/SOUNDERS \u003e ACOUSTIC SOUNDERS \u003e MSBS", "is_usap_dc": false, "keywords": "AMD; R/V NBP; NSF/USA; Amundsen Sea; AMD/US; USAP-DC", "locations": "Amundsen Sea", "north": null, "nsf_funding_programs": "Antarctic Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences", "paleo_time": null, "persons": "Jacobs, Stanley", "platforms": "WATER-BASED PLATFORMS \u003e VESSELS \u003e SURFACE \u003e R/V NBP", "repo": "R2R", "repositories": "R2R; USAP-DC", "science_programs": null, "south": null, "title": "The Amundsen Continental Shelf and the Antarctic Ice Sheet", "uid": "p0000836", "west": null}, {"awards": "0088047 Bell, Robin", "bounds_geometry": null, "dataset_titles": null, "datasets": null, "date_created": "Tue, 03 Jan 2006 00:00:00 GMT", "description": "0088047\u003cbr/\u003eBell\u003cbr/\u003e\u003cbr/\u003eThis award supports a two year project to address fundamental questions about the mass and energy flux through Lake Vostok, a subglacial lake in East Antarctica, sealed beneath almost 4 kilometers of ice. The project will involve developing lake circulation models, complemented by the analysis of new ice penetrating radar data over the lake and surrounding regions. This project will help to accurately define the regions of melting and freezing within the lake and help to provide an improved estimate of the form of the lake. The combined data analysis and modeling effort will provide a critical framework for developing international plans to sample the waters of Lake Vostok for biota and to recover sediments from Lake Vostok for paleoclimate studies.", "east": null, "geometry": null, "instruments": null, "is_usap_dc": false, "keywords": "Paleoclimate; data analysis; subglacial; Lake Vostok; circulation models; Modeling; Not provided", "locations": "Lake Vostok", "north": null, "nsf_funding_programs": "Antarctic Glaciology", "paleo_time": null, "persons": "Bell, Robin; Tremblay, Bruno; Hohmann, Roland; Clarke, Garry; Studinger, Michael S.", "platforms": "Not provided", "repositories": null, "science_programs": null, "south": null, "title": "Mass and Energy Fluxes Through Lake Vostok: Observations and Models", "uid": "p0000093", "west": null}]
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Project Title/Abstract/Map | NSF Award(s) | Date Created | PIs / Scientists | Dataset Links and Repositories | Abstract | Bounds Geometry | Geometry | Selected | Visible | |||||||||
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Collaborative Research: Modeling ice-ocean interaction for the rapidly evolving ice shelf cavities of Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, Antarctica
|
1643285 1643174 |
2022-05-13 | Joughin, Ian; Dutrieux, Pierre; Padman, Laurence; Springer, Scott |
|
Overview: Several recent studies indicate continuing and increasing ice loss from the Amundsen Sea region of West Antarctica (chiefly Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers). This loss is initiated by thinning of the floating ice shelves by basal melting driven by circulation of relatively warm ocean water under the ice shelves. This thinning triggers ice-dynamics related feedbacks, which leads to loss of ice from the grounded ice sheet. Models suggest that, even though long-term committed ice loss might be governed by ice dynamics, the magnitude of ocean-driven melting at the base of the ice shelves plays a critical role in controlling the rate of ice loss. These conclusions, however, are based on simple parameterized models for melt rate that do not take into account how ocean circulation will change in future as large-scale climate forcing changes, and as the ice shelves thin and retreat through both excess melting and accelerated ice flow. Given that present global climate models struggle to resolve the modern ocean state close to the ice shelves around Antarctica, their projections of future impacts on basal melting and time scale of ice loss have large uncertainties. This project is aimed at reducing these uncertainties though two approaches: (i) assessing, for a given ocean state, how the melt rates will change as ice-shelf cavities evolve through melting and grounding-line retreat, and (ii) improving understanding of the sensitivity of melt rates beneath the Pine Island and Thwaites ice shelves to changes in ocean state on the Amundsen Sea continental shelf. These studies will provide more realistic bounds on ice loss and sea level rise, and lay the groundwork for development of future fully-coupled ice sheet-ocean simulations. Intellectual Merit: Rather than pursue a strategy of using fully coupled models, this project adopts a simpler semi-coupled approach to understand the sensitivity of ice-shelf melting to future forcing. Specifically, the project focuses on using regional ocean circulation models to understand current and future patterns of melting in ice-shelf cavities. The project’s preliminary stage will focus on developing high-resolution ice-shelf cavity-circulation models driven by modern observed regional ocean state and validated with current patterns of melt inferred from satellite observations. Next, an ice-flow model will be used to estimate the future grounding line at various stages of retreat. Using these results, an iterative process with the ocean-circulation and ice-flow models will be applied to determine melt rates at each stage of grounding line retreat. These results will help assess whether more physically constrained melt-rate estimates substantially alter the hypothesis that unstable collapse of the Amundsen Sea sector of West Antarctica is underway. Further, by multiple simulations with modified open-ocean boundary conditions, this study will provide a better understanding of the sensitivity of melt to future changes in regional forcing. For example, what is the sensitivity of melt to changes in Circumpolar Deep Water temperature and to changes in the thermocline height driven be changes in wind forcing? Finally, several semi-coupled ice-ocean simulations will be used to investigate the influence of the ocean-circulation driven distribution of melt over the next several decades. These simulations will provide a much-improved understanding of the linkages between far-field ocean forcing, cavity circulation and melting, and ice-sheet response. Broader Impacts: Planning within the current large range of uncertainty in future sea level change leads to high social and economic costs for governments and businesses worldwide. Thus, our project to reduce sea-level rise uncertainty has strong societal as well as scientific interest. The findings and methods will be applicable to ice shelf cavities in other parts of Antarctica and northern Greenland, and will set the stage for future studies with fully coupled models as computational resources improve. This interdisciplinary work combines expertise of glaciologists and oceanographers, and will contribute to the education of new researchers in this field, with participation of graduate students and postdocs. Through several outreach activities, team members will help make the public aware of the dramatic changes occurring in Antarctica along with the likely consequences. This proposal does not require fieldwork in the Antarctic. | POLYGON((-104 -73,-102.2 -73,-100.4 -73,-98.6 -73,-96.8 -73,-95 -73,-93.2 -73,-91.4 -73,-89.6 -73,-87.8 -73,-86 -73,-86 -73.8,-86 -74.6,-86 -75.4,-86 -76.2,-86 -77,-86 -77.8,-86 -78.6,-86 -79.4,-86 -80.2,-86 -81,-87.8 -81,-89.6 -81,-91.4 -81,-93.2 -81,-95 -81,-96.8 -81,-98.6 -81,-100.4 -81,-102.2 -81,-104 -81,-104 -80.2,-104 -79.4,-104 -78.6,-104 -77.8,-104 -77,-104 -76.2,-104 -75.4,-104 -74.6,-104 -73.8,-104 -73)) | POINT(-95 -77) | false | false | |||||||||
Weddell Gyre Mean Circulation and Eddy Statistics from Floats
|
2148517 |
2022-03-25 | Hancock, Cathrine; Speer, Kevin |
|
The Weddell Gyre is one of the major components of the Southern Ocean circulation system, linking heat and carbon fluxes in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current to the continental margins. Water masses entering the Weddell Gyre are modified as they move in a great circular route around the gyre margin and change through processes involving air-sea-cryosphere interactions as well as through ocean eddies that mix properties across the gyre boundaries. Some of the denser water masses exit the gyre through pathways along the northern boundary, and ultimately ventilate the global deep ocean as Antarctic Bottom Water. While in-situ and satellite observations, as well as computer modeling efforts, provide estimates of the large-scale average flow within the gyre, details of the smaller-scale, or "mesoscale" eddy flow remain elusive. The proposed research will quantify mixing due to mesoscale eddies within the Weddell Gyre, as well as the transport of incoming deep water from the northeast, thought to be a result of transient eddies. Since the Weddell Gyre produces source water for about 40% of Antarctic Bottom Water formation, understanding the dynamics in this region helps to identify causes of documented changes in global bottom waters. This in turn, will give insight into how climate change is affecting global oceans, through modification of dense polar waters and Antarctic Bottom Water characteristics. This project aims to track 153 RAFOS-enabled Argo floats in the ice-covered regions of the Weddell Gyre. The resultant tracks along with all available Argo and earlier float data will be used to calculate Eulerian and Lagrangian means and eddy statistics for the Weddell Gyre. The study will link RAFOS tracks with Argo profiles under ice, allowing one to characterize the importance of eddies in water column modification at critical ice-edge boundaries and leads. With RAFOS tracks near the northeastern limit of the gyre, the project will investigate the eddy-driven processes of incoming Circumpolar Deep Water, to understand better the mechanisms and volume fluxes involved. Previous work shows that a large fraction of the mean circulation in the southern and western limits of the gyre, where it contacts the Antarctic continent, occurs in a narrow boundary layer above the slope. The research here will integrate this flow structure into a complete interior and boundary layer mean circulation synthesis. The findings and products from the proposed work will improve the positioning of Argo profiles in the polar regions, which would allow for more accurate climatological maps and derived quantities. Estimates of meso-scale mixing may serve as a foundation for the development of new parameterization schemes employed in climate models, as well as local and global ocean circulation models in polar regions. | POLYGON((-60 -55,-51 -55,-42 -55,-33 -55,-24 -55,-15 -55,-6 -55,3 -55,12 -55,21 -55,30 -55,30 -57,30 -59,30 -61,30 -63,30 -65,30 -67,30 -69,30 -71,30 -73,30 -75,21 -75,12 -75,3 -75,-6 -75,-15 -75,-24 -75,-33 -75,-42 -75,-51 -75,-60 -75,-60 -73,-60 -71,-60 -69,-60 -67,-60 -65,-60 -63,-60 -61,-60 -59,-60 -57,-60 -55)) | POINT(-15 -65) | false | false | |||||||||
NSFGEO-NERC: Integrating Individual Personality Differences in the Evolutionary Ecology of a Seabird in the Rapidly Changing Polar Environment
|
1951500 |
2021-12-08 | Jenouvrier, Stephanie; Patrick, Samantha |
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Overview: To date, studies that have addressed the impacts of global changes have mainly focused on linking climate variability and/or human disturbances to individual life history traits, population dynamics or distribution. However, individual behavior and plasticity mediate these responses. The goal of this project is to understand mechanisms linking environmental changes (climate & fisheries)- behavioral personality type – plasticity in foraging behaviors- life history traits – population dynamics for a seabird breeding in the southern ocean: the wandering albatross. This project will also forecast the population structure and growth rate using the most detailed mechanistic model to date for any wild species incorporating behaviors in an eco-evolutionary context. Specifically, the investigators will (1) characterize the life history strategies along the shy-bold continuum of personalities and across environmental conditions; (2) understand the link between phenotypic plasticity in foraging effort and personality; (3) characterize the heritability of personality and foraging behaviors; (4) develop a stochastic eco-evolutionary model to understand and forecast the distribution of bold and shy individuals within the population and the resulting effect on population growth rate in a changing environment by integrating processes from goals 1, 2 and 3. To date, this has been hampered by the lack of long-term data on personality and life histories in any long-lived species in the wild. For the first time ever, we have tested in a controlled environment the response to a novel situation for ~1800 individuals for more than a decade to define individual personality variation along the shy-bold continuum that we can relate to the life history traits over the entire species life cycle using unique long-term individual mark-recapture data sets for this iconic polar species. The novelty of this project thus lies in the combination of personality, foraging and demographic data to understand and forecast population responses to global change using state-of-the-art statistical analysis and eco-evolutionary modeling approaches. Intellectual Merit: While there is ubiquitous evidence of personality differences across taxa, the implications for life-history are less clear, and the consequences for population dynamics virtually unexplored empirically. How the phenotypic distributions of personality and foraging behaviors types within a population is created and maintained by ecological (demographic and phenotypic plasticity) and evolutionary (heritability) processes remain an open question. Personality traits are a crucial link between how individuals acquire resources, and how they allocate these to reproduction and survival, and this trade-off drives population dynamics. However, although some studies have found different foraging behaviors or breeding performances between personality types, none have established the link between personality- foraging behaviors – life histories (both reproduction and survival, and their covariations) in the context of climate change. Furthermore plasticity in foraging behaviors is not considered in the pace-of-life syndrome, which has potentially hampered our ability to find covariation between personality and life history trade-off. Research into the heritability of personality traits has revealed a strong heritable component, but studies looking at the heritability of foraging behaviors are lacking. For the first time ever, this project will fill these knowledge gaps and integrate in an eco-evolutionary model the complex interaction among individual personality and foraging plasticity, heritability of personality and foraging behaviors, life history strategies, population dynamics in a changing environment (fisheries and climate). Furthermore, this project will provide for the first time projections of population size and structure under future global change using state-of-the-art climate projections from IPCC-class atmospheric-oceanic global circulation models. | POLYGON((-180 -60,-144 -60,-108 -60,-72 -60,-36 -60,0 -60,36 -60,72 -60,108 -60,144 -60,180 -60,180 -63,180 -66,180 -69,180 -72,180 -75,180 -78,180 -81,180 -84,180 -87,180 -90,144 -90,108 -90,72 -90,36 -90,0 -90,-36 -90,-72 -90,-108 -90,-144 -90,-180 -90,-180 -87,-180 -84,-180 -81,-180 -78,-180 -75,-180 -72,-180 -69,-180 -66,-180 -63,-180 -60)) | POINT(0 -89.999) | false | false | |||||||||
Integrating Antarctic Environmental and Biological Predictability to Obtain Optimal Forecasts
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2037561 |
2021-12-08 | Jenouvrier, Stephanie; Holland, Marika |
|
Overview: We aim to provide the most detailed investigation to date of the factors that influence predictability of Antarctic climate, the coupling of climate to penguins populations, and the integration of the two to optimize ecological forecasts. This integrated understanding is critical for guiding future ecological and climate research, prioritizing bio-physical monitoring efforts, and informing conservation decision-making. Our study will reveal the influence of climate system dynamics on ecological predictability across a range of scales and will examine how this role differs among ecological processes, species and regions of Antarctica. Intellectual Merit: Many biophysical processes will change in the coming century. Yet, the mechanisms controlling the predictability of many climate processes are still poorly understood, limiting progress in climate forecasting. In parallel, ecological forecasting remains a nascent discipline. In particular, comparative assessments of predictability, both within and among species, are critically needed to understand the factors that allow (or prevent) useful ecological forecasts. While important for ecological science generally, this need is particularly pressing in Antarctica where the environment is highly dynamic, strongly coupled to biological processes, and likely to change in the future. Improved ecological forecasting therefore requires interdisciplinary efforts to understand the causes of predictability in climate, and in tandem, how climate influences the predictability of natural populations. This proposed research will examine the predictability of Antarctic climate and its influence on penguin demographic response predictability at various temporal and spatial scales using the longest datasets available for two penguin species. Specifically, the PI will 1) identify the physical mechanisms giving rise to climate predictability in Antarctica, 2) identify the relationships between climate and ecological processes at a range of scales, and 3) reveal the factors controlling ecological predictability across a range of scales (e.g., those relevant for short-term adaptive management versus those relevant at end-of-century timescales). These objectives will be achieved using the analysis of existing climate data and Atmosphere-Ocean Global Circulation Models (AGOCMs), with coupled analysis of existing long-term demographic data for multiple seabird species that span a range of ecological niches, life histories, and study sites across the continent. | POLYGON((-180 -60,-144 -60,-108 -60,-72 -60,-36 -60,0 -60,36 -60,72 -60,108 -60,144 -60,180 -60,180 -63,180 -66,180 -69,180 -72,180 -75,180 -78,180 -81,180 -84,180 -87,180 -90,144 -90,108 -90,72 -90,36 -90,0 -90,-36 -90,-72 -90,-108 -90,-144 -90,-180 -90,-180 -87,-180 -84,-180 -81,-180 -78,-180 -75,-180 -72,-180 -69,-180 -66,-180 -63,-180 -60)) | POINT(0 -89.999) | false | false | |||||||||
Collaborative Research: Stable Isotopes of Ice in the Transition and Glacial Sections of the WAIS Divide Deep Ice Core
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1043092 1043167 |
2016-09-15 | White, James; Vaughn, Bruce; Jones, Tyler R. | Steig/1043092<br/><br/>This award supports a project to contribute one of the cornerstone analyses, stable isotopes of ice (Delta-D, Delta-O18) to the ongoing West Antarctic Ice Sheet Divide (WAIS) deep ice core. The WAIS Divide drilling project, a multi-institution project to obtain a continuous high resolution ice core record from central West Antarctica, reached a depth of 2560 m in early 2010; it is expected to take one or two more field seasons to reach the ice sheet bed (~3300 m), plus an additional four seasons for borehole logging and other activities including proposed replicate coring. The current proposal requests support to complete analyses on the WAIS Divide core to the base, where the age will be ~100,000 years or more. These analyses will form the basis for the investigation of a number of outstanding questions in climate and glaciology during the last glacial period, focused on the dynamics of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and the relationship of West Antarctic climate to that of the Northern polar regions, the tropical Pacific, and the rest of the globe, on time scales ranging from years to tens of thousands of years. One new aspect of this work is the growing expertise at the University of Washington in climate modeling with isotope-tracer-enabled general circulation models, which will aid in the interpretation of the data. Another major new aspect is the completion and use of a high-resolution, semi-automated sampling system at the University of Colorado, which will permit the continuous analysis of isotope ratios via laser spectroscopy, at an effective resolution of ~2 cm or less, providing inter-annual time resolution for most of the core. Because continuous flow analyses of stable ice isotopes is a relatively new measurement, we will complement them with parallel measurements, every ~10-20 m, using traditional discrete sampling and analysis by mass spectrometry at the University of Washington. The intellectual merit and the overarching goal of the work are to see Inland WAIS become the reference ice isotope record for West Antarctica. The broader impacts of the work are that the data generated in this project pertain directly to policy-relevant and immediate questions of the stability of the West Antarctic ice sheet, and thus past and future changes in sea level, as well as the nature of climate change in the high southern latitudes. The project will also contribute to the development of modern isotope analysis techniques using laser spectroscopy, with applications well beyond ice cores. The project will involve a graduate student and postdoc who will work with both P.I.s, and spend time at both institutions. Data will be made available rapidly through the Antarctic Glaciological Data Center, for use by other researchers and the public. | POINT(-112.08 -79.47) | POINT(-112.08 -79.47) | false | false | ||||||||||
Collaborative Research: Stable Isotopes of Ice in the Transition and Glacial Sections of the WAIS Divide Deep Ice Core
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1043092 1043167 |
2014-12-06 | Steig, Eric J. |
|
This award supports a project to contribute one of the cornerstone analyses, stable isotopes of ice (Delta-D, Delta-O18) to the ongoing West Antarctic Ice Sheet Divide (WAIS) deep ice core. The WAIS Divide drilling project, a multi-institution project to obtain a continuous high resolution ice core record from central West Antarctica, reached a depth of 2560 m in early 2010; it is expected to take one or two more field seasons to reach the ice sheet bed (~3300 m), plus an additional four seasons for borehole logging and other activities including proposed replicate coring. The current proposal requests support to complete analyses on the WAIS Divide core to the base, where the age will be ~100,000 years or more. These analyses will form the basis for the investigation of a number of outstanding questions in climate and glaciology during the last glacial period, focused on the dynamics of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and the relationship of West Antarctic climate to that of the Northern polar regions, the tropical Pacific, and the rest of the globe, on time scales ranging from years to tens of thousands of years. One new aspect of this work is the growing expertise at the University of Washington in climate modeling with isotope-tracer-enabled general circulation models, which will aid in the interpretation of the data. Another major new aspect is the completion and use of a high-resolution, semi-automated sampling system at the University of Colorado, which will permit the continuous analysis of isotope ratios via laser spectroscopy, at an effective resolution of ~2 cm or less, providing inter-annual time resolution for most of the core. Because continuous flow analyses of stable ice isotopes is a relatively new measurement, we will complement them with parallel measurements, every ~10-20 m, using traditional discrete sampling and analysis by mass spectrometry at the University of Washington. The intellectual merit and the overarching goal of the work are to see Inland WAIS become the reference ice isotope record for West Antarctica. The broader impacts of the work are that the data generated in this project pertain directly to policy-relevant and immediate questions of the stability of the West Antarctic ice sheet, and thus past and future changes in sea level, as well as the nature of climate change in the high southern latitudes. The project will also contribute to the development of modern isotope analysis techniques using laser spectroscopy, with applications well beyond ice cores. The project will involve a graduate student and postdoc who will work with both P.I.s, and spend time at both institutions. Data will be made available rapidly through the Antarctic Glaciological Data Center, for use by other researchers and the public. | None | None | false | false | |||||||||
Large- and Small-scale Dynamics and Meteor Studies in the MLT with a New-generation Meteor Radar on King George Island
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0839084 |
2011-08-15 | Fritts, David; Janches, Diego |
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This award is funded under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (Public Law 111-5). The project will employ a sophisticated meteor radar at the Brazilian Antarctic station Comandante Ferraz on King George Island for a number of synergetic research efforts of high interest to the international aeronomical community. The location of the radar will be at the tip of the Antarctic Peninsula - at a critical southern latitude of 62 degrees - to fill a current measurement gap from 54 to 68 degrees south. The radar will play a key role in Antarctic and inter-hemispheric studies of neutral atmosphere dynamics, defining global mesosphere and lower thermosphere structure and variability (from 80 to 105 km) and guiding advances of models accounting for the dynamics of this high-altitude region, including general circulation models, and climate and numerical weather prediction models. The unique radar measurement sensitivity will enable studies of: (1) the large-scale circulation and planetary waves, (2) the tidal structure and variability, (3) the momentum transport by small-scale gravity waves, (4) important, but unquantified, gravity wave - tidal interactions, (5) polar mesosphere summer echoes, and (6) meteor fluxes, head echoes, and non-specular trails, a number of which exhibit high latitudinal gradients at these latitudes. This radar will support extensive collaborations with U.S. and other scientists making measurements at other Antarctic and Arctic conjugate sites, including Brazilian scientists at C. Ferraz and U.S. and international colleagues having other instrumentation in the Antarctic, Arctic, and within South America. Links to the University of Colorado in the U.S., Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE) in Brazil and Universidad Nacional de La Plata in Argentina will provide unique research opportunities for graduate and undergraduate students in the U.S. and South America. | POLYGON((-63 -59,-62 -59,-61 -59,-60 -59,-59 -59,-58 -59,-57 -59,-56 -59,-55 -59,-54 -59,-53 -59,-53 -59.6,-53 -60.2,-53 -60.8,-53 -61.4,-53 -62,-53 -62.6,-53 -63.2,-53 -63.8,-53 -64.4,-53 -65,-54 -65,-55 -65,-56 -65,-57 -65,-58 -65,-59 -65,-60 -65,-61 -65,-62 -65,-63 -65,-63 -64.4,-63 -63.8,-63 -63.2,-63 -62.6,-63 -62,-63 -61.4,-63 -60.8,-63 -60.2,-63 -59.6,-63 -59)) | POINT(-58 -62) | false | false | |||||||||
The Amundsen Continental Shelf and the Antarctic Ice Sheet
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0440775 |
2010-05-04 | Jacobs, Stanley |
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This collaborative study between Columbia University and the Southampton Oceanography Centre will investigate the dynamics of warm water intrusions under antarctic floating ice shelves. The study will focus on the Amundsen Sea and Pine Island Glacier, and will document how this water gains access to the continental shelf, transports heat into the ice shelf cavities via deep, glacially-scoured troughs, and rises beneath the ice to drive basal melting. The resulting seawater-meltwater mixtures upwell near the ice fronts, contributing to the formation of atypical coastal polynyas with strong geochemical signatures. Multidecadal freshening downstream is consistent with thinning ice shelves, which may be triggering changes inland, increasing the flow of grounded ice into the sea. This work will be carried out in combination with parallel modeling, remote sensing and data based projects, in an effort to narrow uncertainties about the response of West Antarctic Ice Sheet to climate change. Using state-of-the-art facilities and instruments, this work will enhance knowledge of water mass production and modification, and the understanding of interactions between the ocean circulation, sea floor and ice shelves. The data and findings will be reported to publicly accessible archives and submitted for publication in the scientific literature. The information obtained should prove invaluable for the development and validation of general circulation models, needed to predict the future role of the Antarctic Ice Sheet in sea level change. | None | None | false | false | |||||||||
Mass and Energy Fluxes Through Lake Vostok: Observations and Models
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0088047 |
2006-01-03 | Bell, Robin; Tremblay, Bruno; Hohmann, Roland; Clarke, Garry; Studinger, Michael S. | No dataset link provided | 0088047<br/>Bell<br/><br/>This award supports a two year project to address fundamental questions about the mass and energy flux through Lake Vostok, a subglacial lake in East Antarctica, sealed beneath almost 4 kilometers of ice. The project will involve developing lake circulation models, complemented by the analysis of new ice penetrating radar data over the lake and surrounding regions. This project will help to accurately define the regions of melting and freezing within the lake and help to provide an improved estimate of the form of the lake. The combined data analysis and modeling effort will provide a critical framework for developing international plans to sample the waters of Lake Vostok for biota and to recover sediments from Lake Vostok for paleoclimate studies. | None | None | false | false |